Source Critique 1

Detailed Literature Review

Source 1, The “Trend” before the storm: How to use trend analysis and foresight to improve New Product Development success

 

Trend Analysis

 

Purpose of the Source

The purpose of this source is to explain the use of Trend Analysis. It defines trend analysis as a “series of related events or data points over a period of time provide evidence or indicators of a trend”.  It continues to provide steps of Trend Analysis such as Trend Spotting and the various methods used while implementing Trend Analysis.

Strengths of the Technique

·      Data is already collected – you are left with combining it all to find commonalties among the data

·      Trends are something that are repeated thus an commonalities found could be deemed as accurate as they have been repeated

Weaknesses of the Technique

·      Must cross wide range of sectors in order to be effective

Steps

-        Trend spotting – basically monitoring trends within the question at hand that point to commonalites

-       Trendspotter teams – people organized to research and find trend related evidence

Purpose of the Technique

Trend Analysis is a good method to use when trying to predict something. This is done by compiling historical data on what is being followed and looking for trends and consistencies within that data.

Comparison

Most Informative

Although this source is talking about using trend analysis in the business environment this technique can be applied to my analytical question (what are common trends associated with people engaging in espionage?). A key part of trend analysis is making connections within trends, for instance over time what is a common reason why people engage in espionage activities? This article goes on to provide other insights on how to apply the technique and be able to predict changes, in my case potential warning signs of someone turning to espionage.

About the Source Author

The authors of this article were Don Abraham, NPDP, PDMA Director and Director of Development, Social Technologies and Andy Hines, Director of Consulting, Social Technologies. Both of the authors are likely to know about Trend Analysis and its implementation.

Source Reliability

Your source reliability rating according to the Trust Evaluation Worksheet for online sources: http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/WebSitesYouCanTrust-Oct08.pdf

Source Critiqued By

Bryan T. Eisenberg, Beisenbe5@gmail.com, Mercyhurst College, Erie PA, Advanced Analytic Techniques Course,” June 18^th 2011 .

Sources Cited by This Source

This source didn’t cite any other sources, I remain confident with it however as the authors are both qualified in this area. Don Abraham is the PDMA Director of leading global expansion and the Director of Development at Social Technologies. Andy Hines is the Director of Consulting at Social Technologies and part of the adjunct faculty at the University of Houston.