Detailed Literature Review
Source 2, Trend Analysis and Presentation. Trend Monitoring What is it and why do we do it?
Trend Analysis
Purpose of the Source
The purpose of this source is to explain the use of Trend Analysis. It defines trend analysis as finding patterns over a period of time from collected historical data. This source also demonstrates various methods of presenting Trend Analysis such as visual and statistical methods.
Strengths of the Technique
· Data is already collected – you are left with combining it all to find commonalties among the data
· Trends are something that are repeated thus an commonalities found could be deemed as accurate as they have been repeated
Weaknesses of the Technique
· Must cross wide range of sectors in order to be effective
· When presenting statistically it is time consuming and hard to figure out.
· Gradual trends are harder to detect by eye (when presenting via graphically)
Steps
- Figuring out who your audience is and what type of analysis or way of presentation is appropriate for the project at hand
- If statistical data is required, does the data satisfy
- Determining what the trend is telling you, what are the commonalities
- Considering parameters that could effect your trend
Purpose of the Technique
Trend Analysis is a good method to use when trying to predict something. This is done by compiling historical data on what is being followed and looking for trends and consistencies within that data.
Comparison
This source is helpful in instructing one of various methods of how to present trend analysis through graph presentation. Even though it had to do with trend analysis in the environment, its lessons are applicable to the project at hand.
Most Informative
Although this source is talking about using trend analysis in the environment this technique can be applied to my analytical question (what are common trends associated with people engaging in espionage?). A key part of trend analysis is making connections within trends, for instance over time what is a common reason why people engage in espionage activities? This article goes on to provide other insights on how to apply the technique and be able to present Trend Analysis in the form or visual graphs and statistics.
About the Source Author
The author of this article was State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. There was no specific author listed, however several sources were referenced throughout the article.
Source Reliability
Your source reliability rating according to the Trust Evaluation Worksheet for online sources: http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/WebSitesYouCanTrust-Oct08.pdf
Source Reliability: 44.68 High Credibility
Source Critiqued By
Bryan T. Eisenberg, Beisenbe5@gmail.com, Mercyhurst College, Erie PA, Advanced Analytic Techniques Course,” June 18th 2011 .
Sources Cited by This Source
Aroner, E.R., 2000. WQHYDRO Environmental Data Analysis Technical Appendix.
Berk K.N., and P. Carey, 2000. Data Analysis with Microsoft® Excel. Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, CA. pp. 155-162.
EPA, 2000 (EPA/600/R-96/084). Guidance for Data Quality Assessment: Practical methods for Data Analysis, EPA QA/G-9, QA00 Update
Helsel D.R. and R.M. Hirsh. 1991 Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the USGS Book 4. Chapter A3
Hirsch R.M., J.R. Slack and R.A. Smith, 1982. Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data. Water Resources Research, Vol. 18 (1) pp. 107-121 February.
Hirsch R.M., R.B. Alexander, and R.A. Smith 1991. Selection of Methods for the Detection and Estimation of Trends in Water Quality. Water Resources Research, Vol. 27(5), pp. 803-813 May.
Lettenmaier, D.P., L.L. Conquest and J.P. Hughes, 1982. Routine Streams and Rivers Water Quality Trend Monitoring Review. C.W. Harris Hydraulics Laboratory, Technical Report No. 75, Seattle, WA.
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