Detailed Literature Review
Source 5, Concepts of Terrorism: Analysis of the rise, decline, trends and risks.
Trend Analysis
Purpose of the Source
Although this source deals with trends in terrorism, it incorporates the techniques of trend analysis. It also depicts several ways in which trend analysis can be conveyed via data sets and graphical images. Furthermore it discusses how the research of trend analysis was carried out by looking through two terrorism databases (ITERATE & TWEED). It is from there that the researchers attempt to connect qualitative and data compilation regarding terrorism. This particular study involved looking at the root and triggers of terrorism; which is similar to my analytic question in that I am looking for the causes (trends) of people engaging in espionage.
Strengths of the Technique
The purpose of the following list is to identify the strong suits of the method of trend analysis and why it is effective in predicting future events. (There were none discussed within this article)
Weaknesses of the Technique
The purpose of the following list is to identify the weaknesses of the method of trend analysis. (There were none discussed within this article, although it did mention that some things could be time sensitive which might be considered a weakness of trend analysis).
Steps
- Collecting data
- Compiling and graphing the data
- Analyzing the data
- Making connections amongst the data gathered (finding the trends)
- Forming a prediction on the trend at hand based on evidence
Purpose of the Technique
“A trend analysis is a comparative study of the parts of a product or system and the tendency of a product or system to develop in a particular direction over time (ITEA - International Technology Education Association)” Trend Analysis is a good method to use when trying to predict something. This is done by compiling historical data on what is being followed and looking for trends and consistencies within that data. It is also a easy way to convey information gathered visually, as depicted in this article through the various graphs it included.
Comparison
This source is different from my other critiques in that it is an independent study utilizing the method of trend analysis. The authors described what trend analysis is and some aspects of it. It is furthermore different in the fact that it doesn’t have to do with the business world or fashion world. The fact that it is on something in the intelligence community was a refreshing find. It is neat to see how the data was compiled over the years and trends of terrorism change in order to be able to predict future attacks. It was also interesting that it notes that a lot of the research done for the study was qualitative in nature and from articles and books, essentially heavily reliant on open source works.
Most Informative
Although this source is talking about using trend analysis in monitoring trends in terrorism, it’s methods are applicable to any other sort of trend analysis and are along the lines of what I hope to achieve with my project: looking at historical data, identifying trends and being able to make predictions from those trends.
About the Source Author
This was an assessment by the Transnational Terrorism Security. It was collected and authored by various groups such as COT Institute for Safety, Security, and Crisis Management as well as Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO.
Source Reliability
Source Reliability: 48.98 (Very High Credibility)
Source Critiqued By
Bryan T. Eisenberg, Beisenbe5@gmail.com, Mercyhurst College, Erie PA, Advanced Analytic Techniques Course,” July 1st 2011 .
Sources Cited by This Source
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