Source Critique 6

Detailed Literature Review

Source 6, Trend Analysis as Pattern Recognition

http://futuringassociates.com/text/Trend_Analysis_FINAL_REV_20_Sept_08.pdf(Source)

Trend Analysis

 

Purpose of the Source

This source was very informative and had an interesting perspective on trend analysis. The author states, “trend analysis is the study of patterns in human behavior, often set in a context of a time period in the past”(Millett 2). This is very useful for me as my topic, (what are the common trends associated with people engaging in espionage?) has a lot to do with particular behaviors that spies in the past have portrayed. These patterns and trends are useful in predicting who may be a spy. Most government agencies perform polygraph lifestyle tests that look for certain attributes tied to previously found behaviors in captured spies. The paper goes on to discuss three types of pattern recognition (trend analysis). Type I (background) has to do with when we know the background and continuities and potential changes are being sought. Type II (signals) is when we are looking for specific known things such as trends or signatures, not much is known about the background. Type II is the most useful form for my particular assignment. Type III (scatters) is when random signals are detected without context.

Strengths of the Technique

The purpose of the following list is to identify the strong suits of the method of trend analysis and why it is effective in predicting future events. (There were none discussed within this article)

Weaknesses of the Technique

The purpose of the following list is to identify the weaknesses of the method of trend analysis. (There were none discussed within this article, although it did mention that some things could be time sensitive which might be considered a weakness of trend analysis).

Steps

-       Collecting data

-       Compiling and graphing the data

-        Analyzing the data

-        Making connections amongst the data gathered (finding the trends)

-       Forming a prediction on the trend at hand based on evidence

Purpose of the Technique

The purpose of trend analysis is to collect data and make a prediction about the future. One of the examples mentioned in this paper that I found interesting was the historical data of Pearl Harbor and that of the 9/11 attacks. There had been a trend of attacks on America, planes being hijacked, the trade towers being targeted – but there had never been an incident where a plane was used to target a building- the 9/11 attacks caused previous trends to change and gave agencies the ability to predict future attacks or how they could occur. For instance I think everyone notices how the airports have changed since 9/11.

Comparison

This source is different from my other sources in that the author applies trend analysis and different forms of it to the intelligence community more so than the economic one as a lot of my other sources had done. He puts an interesting perspective on his different types of pattern recognition (trend analysis) and provides thought provoking examples to go along with them.

Most Informative

I really enjoyed the examples that the author includes in this paper. It really brought the concepts visually to life. He also utilizes graphs of trend analysis which were very informative.

About the Source Author

This was a paper written by Stephen M. Millett, Ph.D. From 1979-2006 he managed about 100 furturing and forecasting projects for government agencies in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Japan, and India.

Source Reliability

Your source reliability rating according to the Trust Evaluation Worksheet for online sources: http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/WebSitesYouCanTrust-Oct08.pdf

Source Reliability: 48.16 (Very High Credibility)

Source Critiqued By

Bryan T. Eisenberg, Beisenbe5@gmail.com, Mercyhurst College, Erie PA, Advanced Analytic Techniques Course,” July 23^rd  2011 .

Sources Cited by This Source

Stephen M. Millett and Edward J. Honton, A Manager’s Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods. Columbus, OH: Battelle Press, 1991,pp.1-42.