Source Critique 4

Detailed Literature Review

Source 4, Do We Have  a Linear Trend?: A Beginner’s Approach to Analysis of Trends in Community Health Indicators

 

http://fhop.ucsf.edu/fhop/docs/pdf/mcah/TREND13.pdf  (Source)

Trend Analysis

 

Purpose of the Source

Although this source deals with trends in Community Health Indicators the beginnings of this document have to do with the method of trend analysis. It provides insight to what trend analysis is, why it could be time sensitive, and also provides examples of trend analysis in graphs. It is also informative on instructing one to utilize Microsoft Excel to create trendlines and linear trend results.

Strengths of the Technique

The purpose of the following list is to identify the strong suits of the method of trend analysis and why it is effective in predicting future events. (there were none discussed within this article)

Weaknesses of the Technique

The purpose of the following list is to identify the weaknesses of the method of trend analysis. (there were none discussed within this article, although it did mention that somethings could be time sensitive which might be considered a weakness of trend analysis).

Steps

-       Collecting data

-       Compliling and graphing the data

-        Analyzing the data (does it form a generally straight or curved shape?)

-       Forming a prediction on the trend at hand based on evidence

Purpose of the Technique

Trend Analysis is a good method to use when trying to predict something. This is done by compiling historical data on what is being followed and looking for trends and consistencies within that data. It is also a easy way to convey information gathered visually, as depicted in this article through the various graphs it included. As the article states, “well-designed data graphics are usually the simplest and most powerful way to describe, explore, and summarize quantitative data”(Remy 2).

Comparison

This source is different from my other critiques in that it is an independent study utilizing the method of trend analysis. The authors described what trend analysis is and some aspects of it. It is not as in-depth as my previous sources; I however found the information about how to make trendlines through Excel to be useful and insightful.

Most Informative

Although this source is talking about using trend analysis in monitoring trends in community health indicators, the terms it discusses are applicable to anything that someone wishes to use while conducting trend analysis on something.

About the Source Author

The authors of this article were Linda L. Remy, Phd, Ted Clay, MS, and Geraldine Oliva, MD MPH.

Source Reliability

Your source reliability rating according to the Trust Evaluation Worksheet for online sources: http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/WebSitesYouCanTrust-Oct08.pdf

Source Reliability: 31.43

Source Critiqued By

Bryan T. Eisenberg, Beisenbe5@gmail.com, Mercyhurst College, Erie PA, Advanced Analytic Techniques Course,” July 1^st  2011 .

Sources Cited by This Source

Healthy People 2010. : http://www.healthypeople.gov

Tufte ER. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press. 1983. http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/.

Oreglia A: Public Health Rate Program (PHRATE), Version 1.1. Vital Statistics Section, Center for Health Statistics, California Department of Health Services: May 1993. http://www.dhs.cahwnet.gov/hisp/chs/OHIR/Catalog/DataProductCatalog.htm.

Singer JD and Willett JB. Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press, 2003. http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/examples/alda/.

JoinPoint Regression Program.

 http://srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/.

NCI has developed other statistical software to analyze complex trends as described at http://srab.cancer.gov/software/text.html.

lremy@well.com.

Pollio DE, Spitznagel EL, North CS, Thompson S, Foster DA. Service use over time and achievement of stable housing in a mentally ill homeless population. Psychiatric Services, Dec. 2000, 51(12), 1536-1543.

Kim S, Kim K. Personal, temporal and spatial characteristics of seriously injured crash-involved seat belt non-users in Hawaii. Accid Anal Prev. 2003 Jan; 35(1):121-30. MacNab YC. A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance. Accid Anal Prev. 2003 Jan; 35(1):91-102.